Market analysis: Google Ads for heat pumps and heating installers

People looking for a new heating system ask Google about heat pumps, costs, funding and a business nearby. We analyzed these searches: how large demand is in each area, what has changed compared with the previous year, what a click costs and which websites Google cites as sources in its AI Overviews.

How we analyzed the searches

The basis is 11,646 search terms from the Google Ads Keyword Planner via DataForSEO, for Germany, October 2025 to September 2026. The searches are monthly averages of these twelve months; the tailwind compares them with the twelve months before. The bids are Google Ads' upper bid estimates for the top of the page.

• Identical searches count once. Google lists closely related spellings such as "wärmepumpe kosten" and "kosten wärmepumpe" (heat pump costs) with identical figures. We combined them: 8,266 distinct searches remain.
• Searches unrelated to home heating are excluded. These include 213 terms on camping and motorhome heaters, fan heaters, heating oil, jobs and apprenticeships.

Around 2.1 million searches per month, half of them about heat pumps

Only two areas are growing: heat pumps and funding. "gasheizung" (gas heating) still has 59,892 searches per month, 40% fewer than in the previous year.

People search for heat pumps by brand, type and house

"wärmepumpe" (heat pump) alone has 195,250 searches per month with an upper bid of €7.30. In addition, many people search by manufacturer, type or their house:

We only run manufacturer searches for businesses that install that brand, and name the brand in the ad.

Funding and legislation: the strongest growth

For the question "wärmepumpe förderung 2026" (heat pump funding 2026), Google's AI Overview cites KfW, ADAC and Bosch as sources.

Quote searches have the highest bids

Nine of the 20 highest bids (from 100 searches per month) are combinations with photovoltaics or solar, between €14.61 and €19.79. More on demand for solar systems can be found in our market analysis of PV systems and balcony power plants.

Costs are searched for more specifically

"wärmepumpe kosten" (heat pump costs) reaches 37,667 searches per month across ten spellings (+16%). The more precise questions are growing faster:

• "wärmepumpe kosten mit einbau" (heat pump costs including installation): 2,825 searches, +180%
• "wärmepumpe komplettpaket preis" (heat pump complete package price): 1,503 searches, hardly searched for in the previous year
• "kosten wärmepumpe einfamilienhaus" (heat pump costs single-family home): 3,117 searches, +11%

Heating installers nearby: little volume, higher bids

Searching for a business is small at 64,934 searches per month, but has the highest median bid (€3.93). With a local reference, it is growing:

• "heizungsbauer in meiner nähe" (heating installer near me): 2,608 searches, €6.08, +32%
• "heizungsinstallateur in der nähe" (heating installer nearby): 1,441 searches, €5.27, +32%
• "wärmepumpe fachbetrieb in der nähe" (heat pump specialist nearby): 833 searches, +238%
• "heizungsbauer in der nähe" (heating installer nearby): 9,575 searches, €5.38, +5%

Searches peak from October to February

In January, almost twice as many people search as in June (index 100 = monthly average). We allocate the budget accordingly and increase it from September.

AI Overviews: manufacturers and energy suppliers are cited

We searched Google for 20 typical questions, for example "was kostet eine wärmepumpe mit einbau" (what does a heat pump cost including installation), "wärmepumpe oder gasheizung" (heat pump or gas heating) or "wie laut ist eine wärmepumpe" (how loud is a heat pump) (queried on October 19, 2026). For 18 questions, an AI Overview appears above the search results; only "wärmepumpe mit heizkörpern" (heat pump with radiators) and "wie finde ich einen guten heizungsbauer" (how do I find a good heating installer) have none.

Together, the AI Overviews cite 32 different websites in 54 mentions:

• Manufacturers: Bosch (5), Buderus (4), Viessmann (3), Stiebel Eltron, Wolf and ÖkoFEN, 15 mentions in total.
• Energy suppliers: Vattenfall (3), EnBW, EWE, MVV, GASAG, Green Planet Energy and energis, 9 mentions in total.
• Installation providers and advice sites: including thermondo (4), heizung.de (3), ADAC (3), Finanztip and Enter.

None of the 32 websites can be recognized by name as an individual local heating installation business. Only 14 of the 54 mentions come from websites that also appear among the top five regular search results.

How we build Google Ads for heating installers

• Separate campaigns per intent. Quotes and installation, funding, costs and the search for a business each get their own campaigns, their own budget and their own goals.
• Catchment area per location. We define the radius in which you install and connect the ads with address, call and Google Maps.
• Value of a job as the goal. We store the job value in the account and match inquiries with your CRM so that bids are steered toward jobs.
• Factor in photovoltaics. If you also install solar systems, the combination searches get their own campaign.
• Budget by season. More from October to February, less from May to August.

We exclude these searches

• Infrared heaters, if you don't install them: 209,943 searches per month at a €1.07 median
• Camping, RV and tent heaters
• Spare parts, heating elements and fan heaters
• “wärmepumpe selber einbauen” (install a heat pump yourself): 3,325 searches, +39%

Conclusion: funding, quotes and local relevance

The heat pump accounts for half of the demand and is growing, while gas and oil are declining. Searches for funding are growing the fastest; quote searches and combination searches with photovoltaics have the highest bids. Searches for a heating installer nearby are small but growing with local relevance. Google's AI Overviews currently feature manufacturers and energy suppliers, not local businesses.